Category: FinTech

  • Why Data Centres Will Change the World and Bankrupt Their Builders — John Hempton

    Everybody who touches it will go bust.
    Everybody who touches it will go bust.

    This talk is a wonderful explanation of the new AI build out. It’s amazing technology, but it’s going to bankrupt the people who are building the data centers.

    John says, “AI as a tech is freaking amazing.” He understands, because he works with it, that it’s going to transform human society at scale.

    John’s argument: high capital cost, low margin production, and open to competition means various people will build data centers, there will be a race to the bottom, every one gets AI, like electricity, and the initial builders will go out of business because the cost of producing the hardware (or software “tokens”) keeps going down. Think of the railroad builders, or the optic fiber build out, same process.

    “John Hempton is Australia’s most prominent short seller and the founder and chief investment officer of Bronte Capital, a Sydney-based global hedge fund.”

  • AI is Eating Software

    Mark Andreeson once said, “Software is eating the world.” Meaning that software is automating and organizing business and everything.

    Now, AI is eating the software that is eating the world. In an article, “Why Venture Capitalists Are Suddenly Terrified Of AI” — Kevin Rose” Kevin says VCs don’t know how to invest in AI, because the cost of AI to MVP (Minimum Viable Product) is so low, entrepreneurs don’t need VCs anymore to get to market with software products.

  • Price Prediction for Bitcoin

    Price Prediction for Bitcoin

    What happens to the price of bitcoin if the big investment firms decide to allocate 5% to AUM (Assets Under Management)? “Around ~$310k per coin.”

  • Inflation & Fiat Currencies

    • History of Currencies (The Bitcoin Standard) on how all currencies go to worthless over time
    • Governments were based on Gold Reserves
    • Governments migrated to Fiat from Gold in the twentieth century (because of centralization and corruption)
    • Governments are printing currency to pay bills = Inflation
    • ShadowStats example
    • Spreadsheet with 10% inflation example (between 6-7 years to debase money by 50%)
    • Lynn Alden suggests a decade of inflation as debts are too much to be paid except by printing more currency, thereby debasing currency. The interest on the US debt is just too much to pay!
    • Therefore, move money out of currency into other assets

    History has shown that governments will inevitably succumb to the temptation of inflating the money supply…. government will always find a reason or way to print more money, expanding government power while reducing the wealth of the currency holders.

    Saifedean Ammous, from The Bitcoin Standard, page 67

    On ShadowStats.com, near the bottom of a ridiculously long home page, there’s a couple useful paragraphs:

    Have you ever wondered why the CPI, GDP and employment numbers run counter to your personal and business experiences? The problem lies in biased and often-manipulated government reporting. Primers on Government Economic Reports What you’ve suspected but were afraid to ask. The story behind unemployment, the Federal Deficit, CPI, GDP.

    ShadowStats.com

    The above chart shows how long it takes to lose 50% of one’s money at 10% inflation per year–between 6 & 7 years.

    Lynn Alden, who I consider to be a respectable economy wonk, says:

    My base case going forward continues to be that with the combination of sizable broad money supply growth, along with public opinion pushing the pendulum back away from globalization, consumer price inflation is likely to be higher in the 2020s decade than in the 2010s decade.

    Last, summary paragraph of a really really long information rich page