Corona Virus: Do the Math

do the math corona virus
corona virus: do the math

I came across this thread that predicts that the US is heading for trouble:

I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk math. 1/n

….I’m an engineer. This is what my mind does all day: I run back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to estimate order-of-magnitude impacts….

Spreadsheet of Virus Growth in US
“In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population.”–from above thread

Liz Sprecht then expounds on two subjects, beds and masks. She concludes: “That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide.” So ~330k beds, and if 10% of the US sick people need hospitalization and there are over 3 million sick, then they overwhelm the healthcare system, which can then multiply the death rate from 1-2%* to 10-11%* (per Chris Martenson from his youtube channel). Ditto for masks.

*All estimates, it takes time to get the facts. Just look at the country charts and notice the exponential growth for most countries. That curve has to be flattened by NPI (non pharmaceutical intervention) actions by many people such as social distancing and self-quarantining.

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