Corona Virus: Do the Math

do the math corona virus
corona virus: do the math

I came across this thread that predicts that the US is heading for trouble:

I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk math. 1/n

….I’m an engineer. This is what my mind does all day: I run back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to estimate order-of-magnitude impacts….

Spreadsheet of Virus Growth in US
“In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population.”–from above thread

Liz Sprecht then expounds on two subjects, beds and masks. She concludes: “That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide.” So ~330k beds, and if 10% of the US sick people need hospitalization and there are over 3 million sick, then they overwhelm the healthcare system, which can then multiply the death rate from 1-2%* to 10-11%* (per Chris Martenson from his youtube channel). Ditto for masks.

*All estimates, it takes time to get the facts. Just look at the country charts and notice the exponential growth for most countries. That curve has to be flattened by NPI (non pharmaceutical intervention) actions by many people such as social distancing and self-quarantining.

Good Eats Review: Prescription Nutrition

Prescription Nutrition: CuriosityStream Documentary Series (2017)

Short and sweet, a delightful 4 part overview (about 20 minutes each) of diet and nutrition that got me up from watching multiple times to go into the kitchen and check ingredients and start cooking! You can probably watch them for free if you sign up for a trial subscription.

In this exclusive, original CuriosityStream documentary series, doctors, chefs and nutritionists weigh in on how changes in diet can positively affect health and longevity.

Part 1: Green Revolution
Explores the extraordinary health benefits of plant-based diets and the amazing revolution taking place on how we approach our relationship with food. Dr. Greger (NutritionFacts.org) outlines how a diet comprised of whole, plant-based foods can dramatically improve well-being and longevity.

Part 2: Grain of Truth
Exposes how the industrial revolution opened the floodgates for highly-processed convenience foods that became “our daily bread.” But those pseudo-grains are known to contribute to chronic disease. Natural, whole grains support longevity and lower the risk of heart disease. Grain of Truth also explores the debate over gluten as a dietary evil.

Part 3: Spilling the Beans
Spotlights some of nature’s tiniest packages that deliver a powerful protein punch. Protein is an essential component of our diet, and for centuries, products of animal origin were thought to be one of the best sources. But, new evidence proves diets high in beans are one of the most important dietary predictors of survival for older people around the world.

Part 4: Natures Candy
Reveals the surprising impact sugar can have on our health. The added sugars in most packaged foods are one of the deadliest ingredients in our modern diet. But the naturally-occurring sugars, antioxidants and nutrients found in most fruits and berries make these sweet treats some of the healthiest foods on our planet.

Fast Learning Book: Badass: Making Users Awesome

Experts are not what they know but what they do.
Repeatedly.–page 81

OK then, I want to learn Laravel the O’Reilly “Head First” way. Kathy Sierra came up with the idea when she started writing books on Java around 2003: Kathy says: you don’t focus on the tool, you focus on making the user of the tool awesome.

So how does one make the user awesome? One breaks the subject matter down into small lessons, and repeats them alot, to achieve a fast learning flow.

Also using whole-body techniques– Splash! Wake me up with a tiger to get my attention.